Analysis - General Elections - 2009 Andhra Pradesh

I predicted some member of parliament seats to be won by PRP.

I have gone by counting number of assembly constituencies that PRP has got impact and canditate's caliber and local information gathered from friends and papers and news.

Following is my list of MP seats which PRP should win :

1. Anakapalle
2. Kakinada
3. Amalapuram
4. Narasapuram
5. Eluru
6. Machilipatnam
7. Tirupathi

After polling is done, I have clearly observed the voting percent has increased in above constituencies... Hence good news here

Following are tentative places where PRP has got brighter chances

1. Araku
2. Rajahmundry
3. Nandhyal
4. Vishakapatnam

So 11 constituencies which are very positive and unless any strange thing happens, PRP should not loose these...

Places where PRP crossing the finish line marginally is :

1. Guntur (got equal swing in all constituencies compared against other parties.. but cross voting is bad)
2. Nijamabad (Entirely dependent on P Vinay Kumar and Pawan Kalyan factor how far it worked)
3. Khammam (The communists may loose with the alliance not glued properly. PRP has NOT fielded a strong canditate here)
4. Rajampet (Even this is in Rayalaseema, should get D K Adikesavulu factor work along with Chiru charishma)

Tough fights :

1. Narasaraopet
2. Nellore
3. Ongole
4. Chittor
5. Bapatla
6. Nagarkurnool (moved this above, since voting was increased by 6 - 7%)
7. Nalgonda
8. Malkajgiri
9. Vijayanagaram
10. Srikakulam
11. Mahabubabad
12. Chevella

Places where PRP is no way :-(

1. Cuddapah
2. Vijayawada
3. Adilabad
4. Medak
5. Hindupur
6. Hyderabad
7. Secunderabad
8. Mahaboob Nagar
9. Warangal
10. Bhuvanagiri
11. Karimnagar
12. Zahirabad
13. Kurnool
14. Pedapalle
15. Anantapur